Leaving it On the Table - Original

In your most recent article, Attack Iran and you attack Russia, you write - that an attack on Iran would be viewed by Moscow as an attack on them. My question is, do you think that even leaving an attack "on the table" has the ability to rupture relations between the US and Russia, especially if the US ratchets up new threats in the near future? Thanks for any information, I enjoyed your writing immensely

Leaving It On the Table

Thanks a lot for your email. US-Russia relations are
already immensely strained - as Putin and his inner
circle see it. This Caspian summit was vastly
significant for both Russia and Iran. It opened the
way for Iran to join the SCO. And it reinforced
regional powers' sway over Central Asia - which the
Bush admn. virtually "lost". Not to mention
Azerbaijan as a base for attacks on Iran (and for
rattling Moscow's nerves).


For all their autocratic tendencies Putin and his
circle see the cold war as always ON. It is easy to
understand their point. The SCO will be bigger and
bigger - the NATO of the East... And it will cement a
very important strategic partnerhsip uniting China,
Russia and Iran under the same umbrella. I wonder what
a Hillary admn. would do to revert the confrontational
approach of the Bush admn. The Russians are taking no
chances - even with an attack on Iran "only" on the
table. They remain infinitely wary of all US designs
east of the Urals.
All the best, Pepe

Israeli Response?

It is likely that Israel would be more nervous about an Iranian nuclear
capability if the United States normalized relations with Tehran. But it
would be difficult for Israel to launch an attack without U.S.
cooperation. Indeed, striking the more than one-dozen (known) nuclear
facilities in Iran (some of which are hardened facilities)would be
several orders of magnitude more difficult than the Israeli strike
against the single Iraqi facility (Osirak) in 1981. Moreover, it would
be nearly impossible for Israel to conduct such a mission without
traversing Iraqi air space--which is, of course, controlled by the
United States. Consequently, although Israel might have a greater
incentive to take action against Iran following a U.S. normalization of
relations with Tehran, there would be daunting obstacles to executing
such a strategy.

Best regards,

-----Original Message-----
From: Bricker, Brett Jacob [mailto:bbricker@ku.edu]
Sent: Sunday, July 29, 2007 4:48 PM
To: Ted Carpenter
Subject: Questions about a Nuclear Iran

Dr. Carpenter - I have been reading your recent publications regarding
Iran's nuclear capabilities, and the US response. Specifically, in
"Rethinking Non-Proliferation", you write that the United States should
normalize relations with Iran.

The question that I have regards Israel's response to such a
proposition. Do you think that this would risk the US-Israel alliance?
More importantly, if the United States pledged not to attack Iran, do
you think that there is a higher likelihood Israel would pre-emptively
attack Iran?

Thanks for any remarks, and I look forward to future publications.

-Brett Bricker, University of Kansas

Lebanon Debt Relief

I am writing you with reference to your email sent to Marwan Barakat regarding bilateral debt between Lebanon and the US.

Official data shows that, at end-2006, only US$ 1 million was lent by the US to Lebanon through the US-government EXIM Bank. On the other hand, the US pledged during the Paris III conference US$ 890 million of grants, in the form of private sector support, in-kind technical assistance, budgetary support, and UN/NGOs support.

It is worth mentioning that the bulk of Lebanon’s foreign debt is in market Eurobonds. These accounted for around 67% of total foreign currency debt at mid-2007. Some 12% were Paris II related Eurobonds and loans (with nothing pertaining to the US), and 9% are also Paris II related Eurobonds held by the Central Bank.

Most of the data is available on the Ministry of Finance website (www.finance.gov.lb). Check under the publications section the “Public Finance Monitor” periodical and under the public finance section the foreign debt distribution section.

I hope this answered your question. Should you need any further information, do not hesitate to contact me.

Zeina Abla
Head of Economic Research Unit
Research Department
Bank Audi - Audi Saradar Group
P.O. Box 11-2560 ? Beirut 1107 2808 ? Lebanon
Phone: +961 1 977 407 ?Fax: +961 1 985 622
web: www.audi.com.lb