Israeli Response?

It is likely that Israel would be more nervous about an Iranian nuclear
capability if the United States normalized relations with Tehran. But it
would be difficult for Israel to launch an attack without U.S.
cooperation. Indeed, striking the more than one-dozen (known) nuclear
facilities in Iran (some of which are hardened facilities)would be
several orders of magnitude more difficult than the Israeli strike
against the single Iraqi facility (Osirak) in 1981. Moreover, it would
be nearly impossible for Israel to conduct such a mission without
traversing Iraqi air space--which is, of course, controlled by the
United States. Consequently, although Israel might have a greater
incentive to take action against Iran following a U.S. normalization of
relations with Tehran, there would be daunting obstacles to executing
such a strategy.

Best regards,

-----Original Message-----
From: Bricker, Brett Jacob [mailto:bbricker@ku.edu]
Sent: Sunday, July 29, 2007 4:48 PM
To: Ted Carpenter
Subject: Questions about a Nuclear Iran

Dr. Carpenter - I have been reading your recent publications regarding
Iran's nuclear capabilities, and the US response. Specifically, in
"Rethinking Non-Proliferation", you write that the United States should
normalize relations with Iran.

The question that I have regards Israel's response to such a
proposition. Do you think that this would risk the US-Israel alliance?
More importantly, if the United States pledged not to attack Iran, do
you think that there is a higher likelihood Israel would pre-emptively
attack Iran?

Thanks for any remarks, and I look forward to future publications.

-Brett Bricker, University of Kansas